Economic Modelling Solutions

Making SENSE out of trends

MACROECONOMIC MODELLING

The EMS macroeconomic model is an EViews based quarterly time-series demand side model. This model is specifically built for SA as a small open economy and is used for impact analysis, forecasting, general economic research and scenario analysis - including for IFRS9.

SECTOR ANALYSIS

These models are developed by building Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) and using a Leontief inverse structure. It is used to estimate direct, indirect and induce impacts on the economy.

COST-ESCALATION MODELLING

The cost-escalation model is used to forecast or perform scenario analysis on price movements of various commodity, labour and industry indices. This include selected consumer price indices (CPI), producer price indices (PPI), construction materials price indices, working group indices and SEIFSA indices.

TRADE ANALYSIS

EMS has performed various studies and analysis that focused on trade performance and potential.

ECONOMIC RESEARCH

EMS has performed a large number of economic research projects across various sectors including mining, manufacturing, electricity, construction, retail, commodities, oil, township economies and public finance.

BESPOKE ECONOMIC MODELS

EMS has developed a large number of bespoke economic models for clients to perform analysis and forecasts including sector, retail, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, cement sales, vehicle sales and fuel models. Other models include social cost of payments models and industry benchmarking & scenario analysis models.

Who are we

Economic Modelling Solutions (EMS) is an independent provider of high quality economic services to the private and public sector. We pride ourselves on our quantitative economic skills that we utilise to get evidence based outcomes.

Company History

EMS was founded in 2011 under the leadership of Johannes Jordaan (PhD, Economics) to provide independent economic research, forecasts and advisory services. Johannes has 18 years’ experience, ranging over several aspects of economics; including lecturing at the University of Pretoria and heading up economic modelling and research at KPMG South Africa. Johannes also holds a degree in Town and Regional planning that provides EMS with a unique angle to provide practical economic solutions. Johannes is also an associate at Econometrix since 2012.

ACCOLADES

EMS is a proud participant in the Sake Economist of the Year competition (presented by Netwerk24, Beeld, Die Burger, Rapport and Volksblad) since 2012 and also provides macroeconomic forecasts on a regular basis to Bloomberg News South Africa and Reuters Economic poll.

EMS won the Sake Economist of the Year for 2019 and 2020, the Thomson Reuters Economist of the Year award in 2017 and also received the 2017 award for the best forecaster of GDP growth from Reuters.

Johannes in association with Econometrix was also the most accurate forecaster of SA GDP according to FocusEconomics in 2017 and received the award for most accurate forecaster of inflation in 2018 (also 2nd in forecasting the current account and was the 3rd best forecaster overall). He also received the FocusEconomics prize for the best forecaster of exchange rates in 2019 and top overall forecaster for the South African economy in 2022.

SEND EMAIL

info@economicmodelling.co.za